Bayesian Inference of Pair-Copula Constriction for Multivariate Dependency Modeling of Iran’s Macroeconomic Variables

Bayesian inference of pair-copula constriction (PCC) is used for multivariate dependency modeling of Iran’s macroeconomics variables: oil revenue, economic growth, total consumption and investment. These constructions are based on bivariate t-copulas as building blocks and can model the nature of extreme events in bivariate margins individually. The model parameter was estimated based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. A MCMC algorithm reveals unconditional as well as conditional independence in Iran’s macroeconomic variables, which can simplify resulting PCC’s for these data

A low cost and highly accurate technique for big data spatial-temporal interpolation

The high velocity, variety and volume of data generation by today's systems have necessitated Big Data (BD) analytic techniques. This has penetrated a wide range of industries; BD as a notion has various types and characteristics, and therefore a variety of analytic techniques would be required. The traditional analysis methods are typically unable to analyse spatial-temporal BD. Interpolation is required to approximate the values between the already existing data points, yet since there exist both location and time dimensions, only a multivariate interpolation would be appropriate. Nevertheless, existing software are unable to perform such complex interpolations. To overcome this challenge, this paper presents a layer by layer interpolation approach for spatial-temporal BD. Developing this layered structure provides the opportunity for working with much smaller linear system of equations. Consequently, this structure increases the accuracy and stability of numerical structure of the considered BD interpolation. To construct this layer by layer interpolation, we have used the good properties of Radial Basis Functions (RBFs). The proposed new approach is applied to numerical examples in spatial-temporal big data and the obtained results confirm the high accuracy and low computational cost. Finally, our approach is applied to explore one of the air pollution indices, i.e. daily PM2.5 concentration, based on different stations in the contiguous United States, and it is evaluated by leave-one-out cross validation

Copula-based probabilistic assessment of intensity and duration of cold episodes: A case study of Malayer vineyard region

Frost, particularly during the spring, is one of the most damaging weather phenomena for vineyards, causing significant economic losses to vineyards around the world each year. The risk of tardive frost damage in vine-yards due to changing climate is considered as an important threat to the sustainable production of grapes. Therefore, the cold monitoring strategies is one of the criteria with significant impacts on the yields and prosperity of horticulture and raisin factories. Frost events can be characterized by duration and severity. This paper investigates the risk and impacts of frost phenomenon in the vineyards by modeling the joint distribution of duration and severity factors and analyzing the influential parameter’s dependency structure using capabilities of copula functions. A novel mathematical framework is developed within this study to understand the risk and uncertainties associate with frost events and the impacts on yields of vineyards by analyzing the non-linear dependency structure using copula functions as an efficient tool. The developed model was successfully vali-dated for the case study of vineyard in Malayer city of Iran. The copula model developed in this study was shown to be a robust tool for predicting the return period of the frost events

Using Machine Learning Algorithms to Develop a Clinical Decision-Making Tool for COVID-19 Inpatients.

BACKGROUND: Within the UK, COVID-19 has contributed towards over 103,000 deaths. Although multiple risk factors for COVID-19 have been identified, using this data to improve clinical care has proven challenging. The main aim of this study is to develop a reliable, multivariable predictive model for COVID-19 in-patient outcomes, thus enabling risk-stratification and earlier clinical decision-making. METHODS: Anonymised data consisting of 44 independent predictor variables from 355 adults diagnosed with COVID-19, at a UK hospital, was manually extracted from electronic patient records for retrospective, case-control analysis. Primary outcomes included inpatient mortality, required ventilatory support, and duration of inpatient treatment. Pulmonary embolism sequala was the only secondary outcome. After balancing data, key variables were feature selected for each outcome using random forests. Predictive models were then learned and constructed using Bayesian networks. RESULTS: The proposed probabilistic models were able to predict, using feature selected risk factors, the probability of the mentioned outcomes. Overall, our findings demonstrate reliable, multivariable, quantitative predictive models for four outcomes, which utilise readily available clinical information for COVID-19 adult inpatients. Further research is required to externally validate our models and demonstrate their utility as risk stratification and clinical decision-making tools

Approximation Multivariate Distribution of Main Indices of Tehran Stock Exchange with Pair-Copula

The multivariate distribution of five main indices of Tehran stock exchange is approximated using a pair-copula model. A vine graphical model is used to produce an n-dimensional copula. This is accomplished using a flexible copula called a minimum information (MI) copula as a part of pair-copula construction. Obtained results show that the achieved model has a good level of approximation